Betting Strategy for Baccarat, Roulette, Dragon vs Tiger Games

betting strategy

Betting systems are explained.

What attributes does a winning gambling plan have?

No betting strategy can ensure success. If one were to be created, it is safe to say that it would not be sold and that the casinos would act quickly to forbid its usage.

An organized approach to gambling is known as a betting strategy (sometimes called a betting system) to generate a profit. For purely probability games of chance with set odds, similar to a perpetual motion machine, the system must convert the house edge into a player advantage to be effective. Statistical analysis is frequently the foundation of betting systems.

Although they can raise the chances of short-term winning at the expense of increased risk and can be a fun gambling experience for some, no betting system can change the long-term expected results in a game involving independent, random trials.

Game theorist Richard Arnold Epstein formally states this in The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic:

Theorem: If a gambler risks a finite amount of capital over many plays in a game with a constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then any betting strategy systems ultimately lead to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered.

Although mathematically and scientifically, it’s impossible to beat the casinos in the long run (that’s the reason why so many of them still exist), it doesn’t stop us from examining the different betting strategy systems that have evolved throughout the years, so readers can find the betting system that best suits them for a short term trip to the local casino.

Betting Strategy System

1)Martingale System

The grandfather of all betting strategies, the Martingale Betting System, is a betting strategy that originated in France in the 18th century. The most straightforward of these methods were created for a game in which the gambler wins the bet if a coin lands on heads and loses if it lands on tails. The gambler was instructed to double their wager after each loss in order for the first win to offset all prior losses and yield a profit equal to the initial bet.

A gambler will likely use the martingale betting technique and has unlimited resources, and the odds are always in their favor. They will eventually win money. However, no gambler has limitless resources, and unlucky gamblers who adopt the martingale betting strategy may go bankrupt or suffer a catastrophic loss due to the exponential growth of their bets.

The gambler’s expected value remains zero, although they typically receive a modest net return, giving the impression that they are using a solid betting strategy. This is because the slim chance that they will sustain a severe loss exactly balances with the expected gain. The house advantage at a casino causes the predicted value to be negative. 

Additionally, martingale betting strategy can swiftly put a gambler out of business because the likelihood of a run of consecutive losses is higher than common understanding would indicate.

Roulette has also been played using the martingale approach, Baccarat, and Dragon vs. Tiger, as the probability of either outcome is close to 50%.

Let’s say a player has a 63-unit betting budget. On the initial wager, the player could wager one unit. The wager doubles with every setback. The gamer will always gamble 2k units by using k as the number of prior consecutive losses. The gambler will receive 1 unit in addition to the total amount wagered up to that moment if they win any wager. 

The gambler resumes the system with a 1-unit stake after achieving this win. The player sheds 63 units in all after suffering losses on each of the first six wagers. The bankroll is depleted; as a result, making the martingale ineffective.

Contrary to what many people instinctively think, the chances of a run of six consecutive defeats are far higher. According to psychological studies, people mistakenly believe that the probability of losing a long string of games is very low because they know that the possibility of losing six consecutive plays out of six is small. 

The likelihood of losing six consecutive times (i.e., experiencing a streak of six losses) at some point over a string of 200 hands of play is roughly 96.5 percent, even if the risk of doing so in six plays is a very low 1.56 percent. A run of 10 consecutive losses has a 17% probability of happening during the course of 200 hands of the game, even if the player is willing to wager 1,000 times their initial wager. When utilizing the martingale approach, ten losses in a row result in a loss of 1,023, which would likely wipe out the bettor.

betting strategy

As the table above shows, although the individual probabilities look small and improbable, the chances of these losing streaks occurring over 200 hands of play are very significant indeed.

The main problem with the Martingale System is that once you decide to go with the system, you are committed to losing all these units just for the gain of 1 unit.

Imagine betting ₹100 a unit and having enough bankroll for ten losses in a row; you would be risking 10 lakh every time you play in return for winning ₹100. Although you will probably win for a while without encountering a 10 lakh loss, how many of us can realistically endure the pain of a 10 lakh loss. There’s no stopping in the middle either; once you place your first bet, you are committed to either winning back everything or going bankrupt trying.

2)1,3,2,6 system or 1,3,2,4 system

The 1-3-2-6 approach is an effective betting strategy for wagers with odds that are about 50/50, especially in Baccarat, Roulette, and Dragon Vs. Tiger. Casino games don’t actually offer 50/50 odds (the Zero in Roulette, for instance, means that even Red / Black isn’t exactly 50/50), but there are some wagers that come close, and this is where the 1-3-2-6 might be helpful.
The sequence of winning bets in the 1-3-2-6 betting system is as follows:

1, 3, 2, 6.

  • If a wager succeeds, you move on to the following bet in the lineup.
  • You start over if your wager loses.
  • If you finish the sequence and win all four bets, you return to the beginning with a profit of 12 units.
  • Four wins in a row
 

The only risk with this betting strategy is losing the first or second wager. This betting strategy performs best in games where four straight wins occur regularly. At the absolute least, you’ll make a profit if you win the first two bets.
When all four bets win (1 in 16 chance), you win large with the 1-3-2-6 and make a profit of 12 bet units.
But the nice thing about the 1-3-2-6 is that even if the third bet loses, You are guaranteed to at least break even if you win the first two wagers (1 in 4).

  • If you lose your initial wager, you lose one unit.
  • If the second loses, you will lose two units (4 bets, 2 wins).
  • You will be four units ahead after bet 2, and therefore if the third wager is unsuccessful, you will earn a profit of two units.
  • If the third and fourth picks win, your overall profit is 12 units.
  • However, even if the fourth wager fails, you still make a profit.
  • If the third and fourth picks win, your overall profit is 12 units.
  • However, even if the fourth wager fails, you still make a profit.

You can see how your profit grows as you proceed through the series of bets in the table below. Because we're talking about betting units here, your bet sequence would be 100, 300, 200, and 600 if you were betting 100 units; 250 units would be 250, 750, 500, and 1500.

betting strategy

A variation of the 1-3-2-6 system is the 1-3-2-4 system.

 

  • The 1-3-2-4 method/strategy is based on the well-known 1-3-2-6 system. Still, it is aimed to lower the win/loss volatility by only placing a bet of 4 units on the fourth wager, maintaining a win overall even if the final wager is unsuccessful. 
  • You could make a profit of six units by winning the first three bets in the 1-3-2-6 (1, 3, and 2) and then risk it all on the sixth bet. 
  • The idea behind the 1-3-2-4 was to secure an overall profit if the first two bets win by retaining two units from the six already won.

The payoff table for the 1-3-2-4 system is shown below:

betting strategy
The good thing about these 2 systems is that you don't risk a significant loss and can walk away anytime you feel unlucky, unlike the Martingale System, where you are committed to risking your whole bankroll every time you make the first bet.
3) The progressive bankroll system

There’s a story of a gambler in Singapore who managed to turn his $400 (roughly equivalent to ₹22800) capital into $12,000,000 (₹68.3 crore equivalent) gambling in Resorts World Casino. We at Hobigames managed to find out more about this story and got the latest scoop on how he managed to do it. 

The gambler, let’s call him Paul (not his real name), has a unique strategy of dividing his bankroll (whatever he had brought to the casino) into 4 units and betting 1 unit whenever he wants to make a bet.

In this instance, he brought $400 into the casino using his usual betting strategy. He bet $100 on the Baccarat table. He won. Now with $500 on him, one unit will be $125 instead of $100. 

Do note that if he had lost his initial bet of $100, he would have had to bet $75 (300/4=75) the next hand because he only had a $300 bankroll left. He had no idea that this was the beginning of a string of luck at the casino that would change his life.

Paul’s $400 quickly became $33,000, using his little strategy of increasing his bets by 25% whenever he won and decreasing them by 25% whenever he lost, mainly due to him hitting a hot streak and progressively increasing his bets during that streak. The casino even gave him a free hotel room to rest in when he ended his day with $33,000.

Paul started the 2nd day with a starting bet size of $8250 (33000/4=8250), adhering to his betting strategy of betting 1/4 of whatever he had. Paul started the day strongly with his first 5 bets winning.

betting strategy

Notice that bet sizes are rounded down after dividing by 4, and there’s a 5% tax for the banker.

Within 5 hands, his bankroll had risen to $97600, and Paul showed no signs of stopping. A normal person might already be happy with the win, and betting $24400 the next hand is not for the faint-hearted. However, Paul was sticking to his plan, and with a system, there’s no emotion involved.

Paul believed his target was far away because you either strike your target or you don’t. If he lost everything now, he would only have lost $400 and a little amount of his time; he intended to make at least a million dollars. 

This system’s attractiveness is that there are no longer any situations where you might consider: “Oh, I think banker next hand, but it’s a low confidence bet, so I bet smaller.” You either bet 1/4 of your bankroll or pass and wait for a better opportunity. There are no second-guesses, no what-ifs, no regrets.

Winning more bets than he lost, and with lady luck still, on his side, he managed to end day 2 with $280,000. He was invited to the VIP area, where he got a 0.8% rolling rebate also helped him accumulate his bankroll. The casino upgraded him to a VIP suite for him to rest that night, hoping that Paul’s luck would run out and he would lose back his winnings to the casino.

His 3rd day started badly, with his first bet of the day losing $70,000. He recovered it the next 2 hands, though.

betting strategy

3 hours into his session, he hit a hot streak where he built his bankroll all the way up to 1.5 million. As the table limit of ($300,000) had already been hit by then, Paul asked for an increase of table limits to $500,000. The casino manager had not seen anything like this, and he called his superiors to tell them about Paul’s request for an increase in limits. 

The casino replied that $500,000 limits were only for super high rollers and VIPs, and Paul has not yet reached that level. Paul was already betting the max table limit, and once his bankroll had hit $2.4 million, there was no stopping him.

By the end of the day, he already had $3.2million that he deposited in his casino cage account. The 0.8% rolling rebate was increased to 1.1% and finally 1.3% due to him hitting the highest available rolling tier. This rolling rebate also helped him in padding his bankroll.

By day 4, he had already built his bankroll to a peak of 12 million, and out of this 12million, 9.9million was his winnings, and 2.1million was his commission from the 1.3% VIP rolling rebate.

The Crash

On day 5, his luck ran out, and he experienced his first losing day, ending the day down 4 million. Sensing a change in luck, Paul quickly paid off his mortgage of 1 million and gave $500,000 to his girlfriend. But Paul did not stop there and kept gambling. After lady luck had deserted him, by the end of the month, he had only $400,000 left.

Paul’s incredible run had come to an end, and all that is left behind is a fascinating story of a gambler who capitalized on his lucky streak and made the casino executives sweat. Paul still visits the casino these days, bringing $1000 or $2000 as his bankroll every time he tries to replicate his incredible run from $400 to $12 million.

Lessons to learn from Paul's adventure

A) Do not be afraid to win when you are on a streak

The reason why most gamblers/punters never win big is due to one simple reason. They will keep betting bigger when they are losing/unlucky to recoup their loss. They will keep betting smaller when they are winning/lucky to preserve their winnings.

This is human nature, and we try to recoup our loss to erase the pain of losing, we also try to preserve our winnings and stay a winner to preserve the good feeling of winning. However, the exact opposite makes you win big and lose small. Betting bigger when you are on a hot streak and betting smaller or even stopping when facing a cold deck.

B) Always have a target when you win and a stop loss when you lose

Paul’s adventure did not have a happy ending because he did not know when to stop. He managed to maximize his winnings in one extended lucky streak but was too greedy to stop even when he had more than ₹68 crores in winnings.

To be fair to Paul, if you had set a target of ₹1 crore, you probably would never even have had a chance to hit ₹68 crores in the first place. But all good things must come to an end, and if you hit your winning target already, walk away and try with a small bankroll again the next time.

C) Systems are useful for keeping our emotions out of the way

Humans are very emotional creatures and often let our emotions and feelings get the better of us. How many times do you remember betting all you have left in one frustrated attempt to win it back?

How often do you regret betting too small when your luck is obviously unstoppable that day. With a system you follow, you leave your emotions out of the equation and let luck do the job. No longer will you have the problem of winning less than you are supposed to and losing more than you should.

D) Bankroll Management

Paul turned $400 into $12 million because he could afford to lose the $400. How much is Paul worth for him to be able to afford gambling with $400? The general rule of investing is you never risk more than 2% of your bankroll on any trade. For gambling, I would say never risk more than 1%-2% of your net worth on a session. 

Can you imagine betting with your whole life savings on the line? The pressure will be so great that you will be so shivering with every bet you make. With that kind of pressure, it’s impossible to win. Always bet within your limits and only risk what you can afford to lose.

E) Targets can be moving

Let’s say you start with a ₹10000 session bankroll and set a target of ₹100,000. You wouldn’t want to stop while you hit ₹100,000 and you are still feeling unstoppable. To give yourself the chance to hit ₹10 lakh or even ₹1 crore, maybe you set your stop as soon as you get your first loss. Eg. 

You start with ₹10000 and hit ₹100,000 through a good run. Once you cross the ₹100,000 level, you try to let it ride but bear in mind once you have a losing hand, you need to get up and walk away. So if you lose the next hand, losing ₹25000, you will still walk away with ₹75000, a not too shabby ₹65000 profit. You can start another session with a reduced bankroll after you walk away, but the important thing is to be able to walk away.

Final words of advice

Mathematically, no betting strategy can alter long-term expected results in a game with a negative expectation. However, in the short run, if we could maximize our chances when we do hit a lucky streak and be satisfied with a strict target when we do hit it, our chances of posting a big win/result are much more likely as compared to our basic human instinct to be emotional and irrational.

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